Nacional vs Alianza Lima analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.1%
Win probability
2.16
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.7%
4-0
4.8%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.6%
3-0
8.9%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.3%
2-0
12.4%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.9%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
18.7%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.7%
12.1%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
3.5%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
8.7%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.7%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+23%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct. 2020 |
NAC
1 - 0
FEN
67%
20%
13%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2020 |
NAC
0 - 1
REN
59%
22%
18%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2020 |
NAC
1 - 1
DEP
69%
19%
12%
|
80 | 67 | 13 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2020 |
BOS
1 - 1
NAC
22%
26%
52%
|
80 | 65 | 15 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 2020 |
LFC
1 - 3
NAC
37%
26%
37%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Alianza Lima
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct. 2020 |
CIE
2 - 1
ALI
61%
21%
17%
|
64 | 68 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2020 |
ALI
0 - 1
SAM
51%
25%
24%
|
65 | 63 | 2 | -1 |
| 10 Oct. 2020 |
CAN
1 - 0
ALI
38%
27%
35%
|
66 | 61 | 5 | -1 |
| 07 Oct. 2020 |
ALI
1 - 1
SBO
56%
24%
21%
|
66 | 60 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 2020 |
ALI
2 - 0
LLA
55%
25%
21%
|
65 | 61 | 4 | +1 |