Nacional vs Alianza Lima analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.3%
Win probability
2.13
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.2%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.8%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.8%
19.6%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.6%
15%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.2%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Mar. 2012 |
NAC
3 - 1
DAN
64%
21%
15%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 2012 |
ALI
1 - 0
NAC
34%
27%
39%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | -1 |
| 09 Mar. 2012 |
RAC
1 - 0
NAC
28%
27%
45%
|
81 | 68 | 13 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 2012 |
NAC
3 - 0
CER
66%
21%
13%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2012 |
DEF
2 - 2
NAC
41%
26%
33%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Alianza Lima
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Mar. 2012 |
ALI
3 - 2
COM
52%
26%
22%
|
72 | 68 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2012 |
VAL
2 - 0
ALI
33%
28%
40%
|
72 | 65 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 2012 |
ALI
1 - 0
NAC
34%
27%
39%
|
72 | 81 | 9 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 2012 |
VAS
3 - 2
ALI
66%
20%
14%
|
73 | 82 | 9 | -1 |
| 03 Mar. 2012 |
GAR
2 - 1
ALI
47%
27%
26%
|
73 | 71 | 2 | 0 |