Conmebol Sudamericana Quarter-finals
Global 3-2
Nacional vs Alianza Lima analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.1%
Win probability
1.75
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.1%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
10%
2-0
12.4%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19%
1-0
14.2%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26%
23.1%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
23.1%
15.9%
Win probability
0.76
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
11.3%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+26%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct. 2002 |
NAC
5 - 0
CSY
77%
16%
7%
|
80 | 62 | 18 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2002 |
PLA
1 - 2
NAC
26%
25%
48%
|
80 | 70 | 10 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2002 |
DAN
3 - 1
NAC
38%
26%
36%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2002 |
ALI
1 - 0
NAC
33%
27%
40%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 2002 |
NAC
2 - 2
CEN
65%
21%
14%
|
81 | 67 | 14 | -1 |
Matches
Alianza Lima
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct. 2002 |
LOS
0 - 3
ALI
30%
28%
41%
|
73 | 63 | 10 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2002 |
MEL
0 - 2
ALI
49%
26%
25%
|
72 | 71 | 1 | +1 |
| 09 Oct. 2002 |
SBO
1 - 0
ALI
37%
27%
36%
|
73 | 64 | 9 | -1 |
| 08 Oct. 2002 |
ALI
4 - 2
CIE
42%
26%
32%
|
72 | 74 | 2 | +1 |
| 01 Oct. 2002 |
ALI
1 - 0
NAC
33%
27%
40%
|
71 | 80 | 9 | +1 |