Nacional vs Alianza Lima analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.6%
Win probability
2.07
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4.8%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.4%
3-0
9.4%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.2%
2-0
13.6%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.3%
1-0
13.2%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
19.2%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
9%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
19.2%
11.2%
Win probability
0.69
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
3.1%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.3%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.4%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb. 2000 |
EME
0 - 2
NAC
44%
26%
31%
|
75 | 70 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 1999 |
NAC
2 - 1
CCP
44%
26%
31%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | +1 |
| 14 Apr. 1999 |
CCP
5 - 0
NAC
52%
25%
23%
|
75 | 78 | 3 | -1 |
| 02 Apr. 1999 |
NAC
2 - 1
EST
62%
22%
16%
|
75 | 63 | 12 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 1999 |
NAC
2 - 3
MON
56%
22%
22%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Alianza Lima
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Feb. 2000 |
ALI
2 - 1
EME
45%
26%
29%
|
65 | 69 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 2000 |
ALI
0 - 3
ATP
30%
23%
47%
|
66 | 79 | 13 | -1 |
| 29 Apr. 1998 |
PEÑ
2 - 1
ALI
68%
20%
12%
|
67 | 77 | 10 | -1 |
| 22 Apr. 1998 |
ALI
1 - 0
PEÑ
29%
26%
45%
|
66 | 77 | 11 | +1 |
| 09 Apr. 1998 |
RIV
2 - 0
ALI
83%
12%
5%
|
66 | 84 | 18 | 0 |