Conmebol Sudamericana 1/32
Global 1-1
Nacional vs The Strongest analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.8%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.5%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.2%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.6%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.4%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.6%
22.1%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.1%
21.1%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.3%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.5%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul. 2013 |
RÑU
2 - 2
NAC
24%
25%
51%
|
77 | 64 | 13 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 2013 |
NAC
0 - 2
CCP
46%
25%
29%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | -1 |
| 22 Jun. 2013 |
AME
2 - 1
NAC
29%
25%
46%
|
77 | 68 | 9 | +1 |
| 19 Jun. 2013 |
RÑU
1 - 0
NAC
20%
24%
56%
|
78 | 62 | 16 | -1 |
| 15 Jun. 2013 |
NAC
0 - 2
GUA
53%
24%
22%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
The Strongest
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 May. 2013 |
STR
2 - 0
JWI
58%
22%
21%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2013 |
STR
1 - 1
RPO
60%
21%
19%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2013 |
NAC
1 - 2
STR
37%
26%
38%
|
71 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2013 |
STR
5 - 0
LAP
84%
11%
5%
|
71 | 53 | 18 | 0 |
| 08 May. 2013 |
PET
1 - 1
STR
27%
28%
46%
|
71 | 62 | 9 | 0 |