Nacional vs Once Caldas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.8%
Win probability
1.71
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3%
3-0
4.8%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.7%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.5%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.2%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
23.9%
25.4%
Win probability
1.14
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.5%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.9%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+10%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Feb. 2010 |
SAN
0 - 3
NAC
27%
25%
47%
|
76 | 62 | 14 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 2010 |
AME
2 - 5
NAC
35%
26%
39%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | 0 |
| 13 Dec. 2009 |
NAC
0 - 0
OLI
55%
24%
21%
|
76 | 72 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2009 |
LIB
2 - 1
NAC
46%
26%
28%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | -2 |
| 28 Nov. 2009 |
NAC
1 - 0
LQE
64%
21%
15%
|
78 | 65 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Once Caldas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb. 2010 |
ONC
3 - 1
ENV
52%
25%
23%
|
73 | 68 | 5 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 2010 |
CAR
4 - 3
ONC
41%
25%
34%
|
73 | 67 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 2009 |
IND
2 - 2
ONC
54%
24%
23%
|
73 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 2009 |
ONC
3 - 3
ENV
52%
26%
23%
|
73 | 67 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 2009 |
SFE
2 - 1
ONC
48%
25%
27%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | 0 |