Nacional vs Libertad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.7%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.6%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
4%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.3%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.2%
26.6%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.6%
31.7%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.8%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.8%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
+19%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
22
9º
12º
10º
48
1º
5º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
48 | 48 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
45 | 45 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
36 | 36 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
35 | 35 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
31 | 31 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 31 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
26 | 26 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
23 | 23 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 23 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
|
10º
|
22 | 22 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
21 | 21 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
19 | 19 |
12º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
CONMEBOL Libertadores
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr. 2024 |
JLM
1 - 2
NAC
46%
28%
27%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2024 |
COR
4 - 0
NAC
75%
17%
8%
|
78 | 89 | 11 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 1
AME
41%
26%
33%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2024 |
NAC
2 - 3
ARG
26%
28%
46%
|
78 | 88 | 10 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2024 |
CCP
1 - 0
NAC
49%
26%
25%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr. 2024 |
LQE
0 - 3
LIB
41%
27%
32%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2024 |
LIB
3 - 0
TAC
61%
22%
17%
|
78 | 71 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2024 |
LIB
2 - 1
GUA
47%
26%
28%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 2024 |
NAC
2 - 0
LIB
53%
23%
23%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 2024 |
LIB
0 - 0
OLI
47%
26%
28%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |