Nacional vs Libertad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40.1%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
6-0
0.1%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.3%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.4%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
3.4%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.6%
1-0
12.2%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.5%
28.1%
Draw
0-0
9.8%
1-1
13.1%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
28.1%
31.8%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
10.5%
1-2
7.1%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
19.4%
0-2
5.7%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
8.7%
0-3
2%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
+24%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May. 2012 |
NAC
0 - 0
OLI
40%
26%
34%
|
74 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2012 |
AME
3 - 2
NAC
35%
26%
39%
|
75 | 67 | 8 | -1 |
| 28 Apr. 2012 |
NAC
1 - 1
GUA
52%
25%
24%
|
75 | 72 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2012 |
TAC
0 - 3
NAC
26%
27%
47%
|
75 | 64 | 11 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 2012 |
CAZ
4 - 1
NAC
62%
20%
18%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 May. 2012 |
UCH
1 - 1
LIB
56%
22%
21%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2012 |
LIB
1 - 1
UCH
54%
24%
22%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2012 |
LIB
0 - 1
AME
64%
21%
15%
|
79 | 67 | 12 | -1 |
| 09 May. 2012 |
LIB
2 - 0
CAZ
42%
26%
32%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2012 |
GUA
2 - 3
LIB
37%
28%
35%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | 0 |