Nacional vs Guaraní analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.6%
Win probability
1.57
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.2%
3-0
4%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.3%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
4.8%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.8%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.4%
25%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25%
29.4%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
7.1%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17.3%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.2%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct. 2018 |
GEN
1 - 2
NAC
34%
28%
38%
|
73 | 67 | 6 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2018 |
NAC
0 - 3
IND
64%
21%
15%
|
74 | 64 | 10 | -1 |
| 03 Oct. 2018 |
NAC
3 - 2
CDL
70%
18%
12%
|
73 | 59 | 14 | +1 |
| 30 Sep. 2018 |
OLI
2 - 0
NAC
72%
18%
11%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | -1 |
| 23 Sep. 2018 |
NAC
0 - 3
CCP
30%
26%
45%
|
74 | 82 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Guaraní
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct. 2018 |
IND
1 - 0
GUA
28%
25%
47%
|
74 | 65 | 9 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2018 |
GUA
0 - 1
CCP
28%
25%
47%
|
74 | 82 | 8 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2018 |
GUA
2 - 0
DEP
74%
17%
10%
|
74 | 59 | 15 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 2018 |
DEP
1 - 1
GUA
34%
26%
40%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 2018 |
LQE
0 - 3
GUA
28%
26%
46%
|
73 | 67 | 6 | +1 |