Nacional vs Guaraní analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35.3%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.1%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.7%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
3.3%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.1%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.1%
26.7%
Draw
0-0
7.8%
1-1
12.7%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.7%
38.1%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
0-1
10.2%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
21%
0-2
6.6%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.1%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.3%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+14%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jun. 2014 |
OLI
2 - 0
NAC
44%
25%
30%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 2014 |
NAC
1 - 1
LIB
40%
28%
33%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 2014 |
GEN
2 - 0
NAC
27%
27%
47%
|
78 | 67 | 11 | 0 |
| 08 Jun. 2014 |
AME
1 - 1
NAC
35%
26%
40%
|
78 | 68 | 10 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 2014 |
DEP
2 - 1
NAC
32%
26%
42%
|
79 | 69 | 10 | -1 |
Matches
Guaraní
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jun. 2014 |
GUA
3 - 1
AME
67%
20%
13%
|
79 | 70 | 9 | 0 |
| 15 Jun. 2014 |
SAN
0 - 2
GUA
20%
24%
56%
|
79 | 63 | 16 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 2014 |
GUA
2 - 1
12O
75%
17%
8%
|
79 | 61 | 18 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2014 |
CCP
5 - 5
GUA
49%
24%
27%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2014 |
GUA
6 - 0
DEP
64%
21%
15%
|
79 | 70 | 9 | 0 |