Nacional vs Guaraní analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51%
Win probability
1.57
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.7%
3-0
5%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.3%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.6%
1-0
12.2%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
25.3%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
12%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.3%
23.8%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
7.6%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
15.3%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-12%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Dec. 2011 |
OLI
1 - 0
NAC
52%
24%
24%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 2011 |
NAC
3 - 4
TAC
59%
24%
17%
|
78 | 67 | 11 | -1 |
| 26 Nov. 2011 |
NAC
1 - 2
RÑU
52%
25%
23%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2011 |
IND
3 - 1
NAC
28%
26%
47%
|
78 | 67 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 Nov. 2011 |
NAC
2 - 1
LQE
73%
19%
8%
|
78 | 59 | 19 | 0 |
Matches
Guaraní
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Dec. 2011 |
GUA
2 - 2
IND
59%
25%
16%
|
72 | 67 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2011 |
LQE
1 - 5
GUA
30%
26%
44%
|
72 | 59 | 13 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 2011 |
GUA
0 - 2
CCP
34%
27%
39%
|
72 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 2011 |
AME
2 - 1
GUA
36%
27%
37%
|
73 | 65 | 8 | -1 |
| 16 Nov. 2011 |
GUA
1 - 2
GEN
67%
21%
12%
|
73 | 61 | 12 | 0 |