Nacional vs Cruz Azul analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
34.5%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
1%
3-0
2.4%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.5%
2-0
6%
3-1
3.1%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
9.8%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.9%
26.9%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.9%
38.6%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
0-1
10.5%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
21.3%
0-2
6.8%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.2%
0-3
3%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.3%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
+12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Feb. 2012 |
LIB
1 - 0
NAC
49%
25%
26%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2011 |
SAN
1 - 1
NAC
22%
25%
53%
|
77 | 61 | 16 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 2011 |
NAC
5 - 2
GUA
51%
25%
24%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Dec. 2011 |
OLI
1 - 0
NAC
52%
24%
24%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 2011 |
NAC
3 - 4
TAC
59%
24%
17%
|
78 | 67 | 11 | -1 |
Matches
Cruz Azul
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Feb. 2012 |
CAZ
2 - 0
JAG
65%
21%
14%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2012 |
ATL
2 - 2
CAZ
38%
27%
36%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 2012 |
CAZ
1 - 1
PAC
54%
23%
23%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2012 |
ATS
0 - 2
CAZ
32%
27%
41%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2012 |
CAZ
1 - 1
TIG
51%
25%
24%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |