Nacional AM vs Plácido de Castro analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.2%
Win probability
2.05
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.1%
4-0
3.9%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.5%
3-0
7.6%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.7%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.6%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
20.4%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.4%
15.5%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.5%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional AM
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jun. 2013 |
NAU
1 - 2
NAC
21%
24%
55%
|
47 | 27 | 20 | 0 |
| 26 May. 2013 |
PRI
0 - 2
NAC
36%
26%
38%
|
47 | 43 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2013 |
COT
1 - 0
NAC
87%
10%
3%
|
47 | 81 | 34 | 0 |
| 19 May. 2013 |
NAC
1 - 3
PRI
57%
22%
20%
|
48 | 41 | 7 | -1 |
| 16 May. 2013 |
NAC
4 - 1
COT
10%
18%
72%
|
46 | 81 | 35 | +2 |
Matches
Plácido de Castro
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jun. 2013 |
PLA
1 - 1
PAR
40%
26%
35%
|
41 | 44 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 May. 2013 |
RIO
0 - 3
PLA
82%
12%
6%
|
39 | 60 | 21 | +2 |
| 24 May. 2013 |
PLA
0 - 2
RIO
11%
16%
73%
|
41 | 59 | 18 | -2 |
| 19 May. 2013 |
ATL
0 - 0
PLA
52%
23%
25%
|
41 | 41 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2013 |
PLA
1 - 0
ATL
38%
25%
37%
|
39 | 42 | 3 | +2 |