NAC Breda vs Ajax analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
12%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
1.5%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.8%
1-0
3.4%
2-1
3.5%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
8.3%
17.2%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
8%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
17.2%
70.9%
Win probability
2.38
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.7%
0-2
11%
1-3
7.6%
2-4
2%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
20.8%
0-3
8.7%
1-4
4.5%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.1%
-3
14.3%
0-4
5.2%
1-5
2.1%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0%
-4
7.7%
0-5
2.5%
1-6
0.9%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
3.5%
0-6
1%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
1.3%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-8%
-1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
6
10º
17º
16º
3
2º
9º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
15º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
15 | 72 |
1º
|
51% | |
|
|
15º
|
3 | 66 |
2º
|
23.5% | |
|
2º
|
13 | 65 |
3º
|
14.5% | |
|
6º
|
6 | 63 |
4º
|
16.5% | |
|
12º
|
5 | 59 |
5º
|
20% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 59 |
6º
|
14% | |
|
8º
|
6 | 51 |
7º
|
14% | |
|
5º
|
8 | 48 |
8º
|
13.5% | |
|
9º
|
6 | 46 |
9º
|
13% | |
|
4º
|
9 | 46 |
10º
|
15.5% | |
|
14º
|
4 | 41 |
11º
|
11.5% | |
|
10º
|
6 | 40 |
12º
|
16.5% | |
|
13º
|
4 | 38 |
13º
|
11.5% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 36 |
14º
|
11.5% | |
|
16º
|
3 | 34 |
15º
|
12.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
6 | 31 |
16º
|
17% | |
|
17º
|
2 | 26 |
17º
|
22.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 25 |
18º
|
45% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 14% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 23.5% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 22.5% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 15.5% |
|
Next round
|
4% | 22.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
45% | 2% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
17% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
34% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
NAC Breda
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
GRO
4 - 1
NAC
52%
24%
24%
|
72 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
SPA
2 - 1
NAC
62%
20%
18%
|
72 | 81 | 9 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 2
ARI
31%
27%
42%
|
72 | 81 | 9 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2024 |
NAC
0 - 1
KSK
46%
23%
31%
|
72 | 66 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 2
OFI
50%
24%
26%
|
72 | 68 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug. 2024 |
AJA
0 - 1
PAN
68%
20%
13%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
AJA
1 - 0
SCH
68%
19%
13%
|
88 | 78 | 10 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 2024 |
PAN
0 - 1
AJA
21%
21%
58%
|
89 | 82 | 7 | -1 |
| 01 Aug. 2024 |
VOJ
1 - 3
AJA
22%
21%
57%
|
88 | 81 | 7 | +1 |
| 25 Jul. 2024 |
AJA
1 - 0
VOJ
68%
19%
14%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |