Europa League 1/32
Global 10-2
MSV Duisburg vs Lech Poznań analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.9%
Win probability
2.47
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.4%
4-0
4.5%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.4%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
4.8%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.5%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.7%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.9%
17.4%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
7.7%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
17.4%
14.7%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9.5%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
MSV Duisburg
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Sep. 1978 |
MSV
1 - 0
RTV
57%
22%
21%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 1978 |
BRE
3 - 2
MSV
45%
24%
31%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 1978 |
MSV
0 - 3
MON
33%
25%
42%
|
81 | 88 | 7 | -1 |
| 19 Aug. 1978 |
BYM
6 - 2
MSV
60%
20%
20%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 1978 |
MSV
1 - 1
ARB
66%
20%
14%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Lech Poznań
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Sep. 1978 |
WAR
3 - 1
LPO
56%
24%
20%
|
73 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 1978 |
LPO
1 - 2
RCH
52%
26%
21%
|
74 | 74 | 0 | -1 |
| 23 Aug. 1978 |
ARK
3 - 2
LPO
45%
27%
28%
|
74 | 71 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 1978 |
POG
3 - 0
LPO
58%
23%
19%
|
75 | 73 | 2 | -1 |
| 12 Aug. 1978 |
LPO
1 - 0
ZAG
51%
27%
23%
|
74 | 75 | 1 | +1 |