Moura vs FC Castrense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
24.2%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
0.7%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.5%
2-0
2.9%
3-1
2.7%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
6.8%
1-0
4.3%
2-1
6.1%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
14%
21%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
21%
54.8%
Win probability
2.09
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
4.4%
3-4
1%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
21.9%
0-2
7.1%
1-3
6.6%
2-4
2.3%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0.1%
-2
16.5%
0-3
4.9%
1-4
3.5%
2-5
1%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
9.5%
0-4
2.6%
1-5
1.4%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
4.4%
0-5
1.1%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
1.7%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.6%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Moura
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
MOU
1 - 2
OPE
13%
19%
69%
|
19 | 38 | 19 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
MOU
1 - 0
POR
20%
19%
61%
|
17 | 26 | 9 | +2 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
ALE
5 - 0
MOU
69%
20%
12%
|
17 | 50 | 33 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
MOU
1 - 4
SER
13%
18%
69%
|
19 | 45 | 26 | -2 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
FCB
0 - 1
MOU
84%
12%
4%
|
17 | 42 | 25 | +2 |
Matches
FC Castrense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep. 2023 |
FCC
0 - 3
VIL
33%
23%
44%
|
28 | 32 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2023 |
FCC
1 - 0
PGO
42%
22%
36%
|
28 | 25 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2022 |
SER
3 - 0
FCC
49%
22%
29%
|
29 | 32 | 3 | -1 |
| 22 Apr. 2018 |
MOU
1 - 2
FCC
74%
16%
10%
|
28 | 43 | 15 | +1 |
| 15 Apr. 2018 |
FCC
3 - 5
OPE
28%
23%
49%
|
29 | 38 | 9 | -1 |