Série D Brazil Last 16
Global 1-1
Moto Club MA vs Ituano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
24.7%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.8%
2-0
4.1%
3-1
1.9%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
6.3%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
5.9%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
16.1%
26.6%
Draw
0-0
9.1%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.6%
48.7%
Win probability
1.45
Expected goals
0-1
13.2%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
24.6%
0-2
9.5%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
14.8%
0-3
4.6%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
6.4%
0-4
1.7%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.2%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-32%
-19%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Moto Club MA
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 2014 |
ITU
1 - 0
MOT
68%
20%
12%
|
46 | 60 | 14 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2014 |
MOT
2 - 1
REM
36%
26%
38%
|
45 | 51 | 6 | +1 |
| 14 Sep. 2014 |
INT
2 - 4
MOT
30%
25%
45%
|
45 | 36 | 9 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2014 |
GUA
0 - 1
MOT
53%
23%
24%
|
44 | 47 | 3 | +1 |
| 31 Aug. 2014 |
MOT
2 - 2
RIV
51%
24%
25%
|
44 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Ituano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 2014 |
ITU
1 - 0
MOT
68%
20%
12%
|
60 | 46 | 14 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2014 |
BRA
1 - 0
ITU
25%
29%
46%
|
62 | 53 | 9 | -2 |
| 06 Sep. 2014 |
ITU
4 - 2
CAB
68%
21%
11%
|
62 | 48 | 14 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2014 |
GRE
1 - 2
ITU
35%
29%
36%
|
62 | 54 | 8 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2014 |
ITU
1 - 0
GUA
68%
20%
12%
|
61 | 46 | 15 | +1 |