Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35.4%
Win probability
1.14
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.1%
+3
3.4%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
2.9%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
<0%
+2
9.9%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
7.6%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.9%
28.4%
Draw
0-0
10.1%
1-1
13.3%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
28.4%
36.2%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
11.7%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
21.2%
0-2
6.7%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
10.2%
0-3
2.6%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
-33%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
35
1º
9º
8º
40
1º
7º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
48 | 52 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
2º
|
33% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 51 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 44 |
4º
|
75.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
40 | 43 |
5º
|
60.5% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 40 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
38 | 39 |
7º
|
36.5% | |
|
|
8º
|
35 | 39 |
8º
|
57% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 34 |
9º
|
80.5% | |
|
10º
|
27 | 31 |
10º
|
60.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 28 |
11º
|
78% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 19 |
12º
|
65.5% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 17 |
13º
|
50% | |
|
13º
|
11 | 12 |
14º
|
84.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mortágua
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb. 2023 |
MOR
2 - 2
MAR
37%
29%
34%
|
35 | 39 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
1DE
1 - 0
MOR
42%
27%
30%
|
36 | 39 | 3 | -1 |
| 12 Feb. 2023 |
MOR
1 - 1
SAB
61%
20%
19%
|
36 | 28 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2023 |
MOR
3 - 3
UDA
40%
23%
37%
|
36 | 36 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2023 |
SER
1 - 1
MOR
50%
27%
24%
|
35 | 42 | 7 | +1 |
Matches
Benfica Castelo Branco
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Mar. 2023 |
BEN
4 - 3
UDA
53%
24%
22%
|
39 | 35 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2023 |
SER
1 - 1
BEN
45%
29%
26%
|
39 | 42 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
BEN
1 - 1
ALC
79%
14%
6%
|
39 | 20 | 19 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2023 |
LOU
1 - 3
BEN
34%
26%
39%
|
39 | 33 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2023 |
BEN
0 - 1
PER
52%
26%
23%
|
39 | 37 | 2 | 0 |