Mortágua vs O Elvas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
19.1%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.3%
2-0
2.8%
3-1
1.6%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.7%
1-0
6%
2-1
5.1%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
12.7%
22.8%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.8%
58.1%
Win probability
1.82
Expected goals
0-1
11.6%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.7%
0-2
10.5%
1-3
6%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
17.9%
0-3
6.4%
1-4
2.7%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
9.6%
0-4
2.9%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
4%
0-5
1.1%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.4%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-22%
-16%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
3
5º
13º
6º
10
1º
7º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
10 | 54 |
1º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
5 | 52 |
2º
|
33.5% | |
|
5º
|
6 | 44 |
3º
|
20% | |
|
4º
|
8 | 43 |
4º
|
18.5% | |
|
11º
|
3 | 38 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
|
13º
|
3 | 38 |
6º
|
11% | |
|
3º
|
8 | 38 |
7º
|
10.5% | |
|
10º
|
4 | 36 |
8º
|
10.5% | |
|
7º
|
4 | 33 |
9º
|
8% | |
|
2º
|
10 | 33 |
10º
|
11.5% | |
|
12º
|
3 | 31 |
11º
|
20.5% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 30 |
12º
|
20.5% | |
|
8º
|
4 | 17 |
13º
|
36.5% | |
|
14º
|
1 | 14 |
14º
|
56.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
3.5% | 75% |
|
Mid-table
|
73% | 25% |
|
Relegation
|
23.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mortágua
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 2024 |
MOR
0 - 1
COI
17%
25%
58%
|
41 | 66 | 25 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2024 |
LUS
2 - 3
MOR
50%
24%
26%
|
39 | 46 | 7 | +2 |
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
MOR
2 - 1
RAB
42%
27%
32%
|
38 | 39 | 1 | +1 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
GDF
0 - 0
MOR
35%
25%
40%
|
38 | 35 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
MOR
1 - 0
UFT
59%
20%
22%
|
38 | 30 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
O Elvas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 2024 |
OEL
2 - 1
VST
57%
25%
19%
|
63 | 50 | 13 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2024 |
ALE
1 - 1
OEL
18%
26%
57%
|
63 | 47 | 16 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
FAB
2 - 1
OEL
19%
23%
58%
|
63 | 42 | 21 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
OEL
2 - 1
IMO
69%
20%
11%
|
63 | 30 | 33 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
ORI
2 - 1
OEL
15%
22%
63%
|
63 | 31 | 32 | 0 |