Modena vs Novara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.9%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
6-0
0.1%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.3%
3-0
3.7%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.1%
+3
4.7%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
3.1%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
12.8%
1-0
15.5%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.1%
+1
24.8%
29.9%
Draw
0-0
13%
1-1
13.1%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
29.9%
26.2%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
11%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
17.6%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
6.5%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+14%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Modena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb. 1976 |
PAL
1 - 0
MOD
58%
26%
16%
|
57 | 59 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 1976 |
MOD
0 - 2
GEN
39%
31%
30%
|
57 | 65 | 8 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 1976 |
VAR
0 - 0
MOD
69%
22%
10%
|
57 | 67 | 10 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 1976 |
PES
2 - 1
MOD
60%
24%
16%
|
58 | 62 | 4 | -1 |
| 18 Jan. 1976 |
MOD
2 - 1
VIC
36%
32%
33%
|
57 | 66 | 9 | +1 |
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb. 1976 |
NOV
2 - 2
TAR
54%
28%
18%
|
61 | 60 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 1976 |
NOV
0 - 0
USF
48%
30%
23%
|
61 | 64 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 1976 |
PIA
2 - 2
NOV
50%
27%
23%
|
61 | 58 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 1976 |
NOV
1 - 1
GEN
46%
30%
24%
|
61 | 65 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 1976 |
TER
1 - 1
NOV
61%
24%
14%
|
60 | 64 | 4 | +1 |