Modena vs Novara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.3%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.2%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.3%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.7%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.3%
21.4%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.1%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.4%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Modena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 1959 |
LEC
2 - 1
MOD
60%
22%
18%
|
58 | 60 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 1959 |
REG
2 - 1
MOD
65%
19%
16%
|
59 | 63 | 4 | -1 |
| 06 Sep. 1959 |
BRE
4 - 6
MOD
64%
20%
16%
|
57 | 62 | 5 | +2 |
| 06 Jun. 1959 |
ATL
1 - 0
MOD
71%
17%
12%
|
58 | 74 | 16 | -1 |
| 31 May. 1959 |
ACM
1 - 2
MOD
60%
23%
17%
|
57 | 60 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 1959 |
MAN
0 - 0
NOV
64%
20%
17%
|
60 | 59 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 1959 |
SAM
1 - 0
NOV
82%
12%
7%
|
61 | 79 | 18 | -1 |
| 06 Jun. 1959 |
NOV
0 - 1
CAT
63%
21%
16%
|
61 | 59 | 2 | 0 |
| 31 May. 1959 |
NOV
0 - 0
ATL
42%
26%
32%
|
61 | 74 | 13 | 0 |
| 24 May. 1959 |
PAL
4 - 0
NOV
59%
22%
19%
|
62 | 69 | 7 | -1 |