Modena vs Varese analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40.2%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
1%
3-0
3.1%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.1%
+3
3.9%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
2.8%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
11.4%
1-0
14.7%
2-1
7.5%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.1%
+1
23.6%
30.3%
Draw
0-0
13.1%
1-1
13.4%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
30.3%
29.5%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
12%
1-2
6.1%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
19.2%
0-2
5.5%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
7.6%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Modena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 May. 1978 |
LEC
2 - 0
MOD
63%
24%
13%
|
51 | 62 | 11 | 0 |
| 07 May. 1978 |
MOD
0 - 4
PIS
43%
24%
33%
|
52 | 59 | 7 | -1 |
| 30 Apr. 1978 |
PAL
3 - 1
MOD
61%
26%
13%
|
53 | 61 | 8 | -1 |
| 23 Apr. 1978 |
MOD
1 - 3
SAM
42%
30%
27%
|
53 | 64 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1978 |
USC
3 - 0
MOD
53%
30%
17%
|
55 | 54 | 1 | -2 |
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 May. 1978 |
COM
2 - 1
VAR
45%
29%
27%
|
60 | 57 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 May. 1978 |
VAR
0 - 1
TER
52%
28%
20%
|
60 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 1978 |
VAR
0 - 0
LEC
50%
28%
22%
|
60 | 62 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1978 |
AVE
2 - 1
VAR
41%
30%
28%
|
61 | 58 | 3 | -1 |
| 16 Apr. 1978 |
RIM
1 - 1
VAR
44%
27%
29%
|
61 | 58 | 3 | 0 |