Minsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.3%
Win probability
1.49
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.1%
3-0
4%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6%
2-0
8%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.6%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.9%
25.8%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.8%
28.9%
Win probability
1.14
Expected goals
0-1
8.2%
1-2
7%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
17.4%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.9%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-8%
-9%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
20
10º
16º
13º
18
9º
15º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
47 | 62 |
1º
|
60.5% | |
|
1º
|
50 | 61 |
2º
|
49% | |
|
3º
|
44 | 56 |
3º
|
51% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 52 |
4º
|
49.5% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 46 |
5º
|
28% | |
|
6º
|
34 | 45 |
6º
|
16.5% | |
|
7º
|
33 | 44 |
7º
|
17.5% | |
|
8º
|
32 | 42 |
8º
|
19% | |
|
11º
|
28 | 39 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
10º
|
28 | 39 |
10º
|
22% | |
|
9º
|
29 | 39 |
11º
|
28% | |
|
16º
|
1 | 32 |
12º
|
57% | |
|
|
12º
|
20 | 27 |
13º
|
34.5% | |
|
|
14º
|
18 | 26 |
14º
|
27% | |
|
13º
|
20 | 25 |
15º
|
30.5% | |
|
15º
|
13 | 21 |
16º
|
70% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase (1st r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
50% | 21.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
27.5% | 27% |
|
Relegation
|
22.5% | 51.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Minsk
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr. 2024 |
DIN
3 - 0
MIN
53%
25%
22%
|
64 | 66 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2024 |
MIN
2 - 3
FCS
53%
25%
22%
|
65 | 56 | 9 | -1 |
| 31 Mar. 2024 |
MIN
0 - 0
DNM
21%
25%
54%
|
65 | 76 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
MIN
0 - 1
BAT
20%
25%
55%
|
65 | 76 | 11 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
MIN
0 - 1
NEM
22%
23%
56%
|
65 | 78 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Naftan Novopolotsk
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr. 2024 |
NAF
1 - 1
FCS
45%
25%
31%
|
59 | 57 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2024 |
DNM
2 - 2
NAF
73%
17%
10%
|
58 | 76 | 18 | +1 |
| 30 Mar. 2024 |
NAF
0 - 0
BAT
14%
23%
63%
|
57 | 76 | 19 | +1 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
NEM
2 - 1
NAF
69%
20%
11%
|
58 | 76 | 18 | -1 |
| 02 Mar. 2024 |
GOM
2 - 2
NAF
65%
19%
16%
|
57 | 70 | 13 | +1 |