Millwall vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35.7%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.1%
3-0
2.6%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.8%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
3.3%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.2%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
8%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.3%
26.7%
Draw
0-0
7.8%
1-1
12.7%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.7%
37.6%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
0-1
10.1%
1-2
8.2%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
20.9%
0-2
6.5%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.9%
0-3
2.8%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.2%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+15%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Millwall
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Mar. 2020 |
NTT
0 - 3
MIL
50%
26%
24%
|
68 | 72 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Feb. 2020 |
MIL
1 - 1
BRI
41%
26%
33%
|
68 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2020 |
MIL
0 - 0
BIR
47%
26%
27%
|
68 | 66 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 2020 |
WIG
1 - 0
MIL
28%
27%
45%
|
69 | 61 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 Feb. 2020 |
PNE
0 - 1
MIL
55%
24%
22%
|
68 | 70 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar. 2020 |
DER
3 - 0
BBU
42%
26%
32%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2020 |
DER
0 - 3
MUD
15%
24%
60%
|
70 | 89 | 19 | 0 |
| 29 Feb. 2020 |
SHW
1 - 3
DER
42%
26%
32%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2020 |
QPR
2 - 1
DER
37%
25%
38%
|
70 | 64 | 6 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 2020 |
DER
1 - 1
FUL
40%
27%
33%
|
70 | 72 | 2 | 0 |