Conmebol Sudamericana Quarter-finals
Global 3-2
Millonarios vs Grêmio analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
31.9%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
2.1%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.1%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
2.9%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.9%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
7.4%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.7%
26.3%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.3%
41.8%
Win probability
1.4
Expected goals
0-1
10.5%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
22.1%
0-2
7.4%
1-3
4.1%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
12.4%
0-3
3.4%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
5.1%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.7%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+14%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Millonarios
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov. 2012 |
PAT
0 - 2
MIL
25%
27%
48%
|
79 | 67 | 12 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2012 |
MIL
2 - 0
ENV
60%
23%
18%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | +1 |
| 31 Oct. 2012 |
GRE
1 - 0
MIL
64%
21%
16%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | -1 |
| 28 Oct. 2012 |
PAS
3 - 1
MIL
43%
27%
30%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2012 |
TOL
0 - 0
MIL
47%
25%
28%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Grêmio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov. 2012 |
GRE
2 - 1
SAO
44%
25%
31%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2012 |
GRE
1 - 0
PPE
68%
19%
13%
|
85 | 75 | 10 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 2012 |
GRE
1 - 0
MIL
64%
21%
16%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2012 |
BAH
1 - 1
GRE
29%
26%
45%
|
85 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2012 |
GRE
2 - 1
BSC
66%
21%
13%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | 0 |