Copa Libertadores Quarter-finals
Global 1-2
Millonarios vs At. Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.7%
Win probability
2.39
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.8%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.8%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.3%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.1%
18.2%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
8%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
18.2%
16.1%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.2%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.1%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
+27%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Millonarios
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 1989 |
NAC
1 - 0
MIL
51%
23%
26%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1989 |
MIL
3 - 2
BOL
60%
21%
19%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | +1 |
| 05 Apr. 1989 |
BOL
1 - 0
MIL
55%
22%
23%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | -1 |
| 31 Mar. 1989 |
MIL
4 - 1
EME
61%
22%
17%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | +1 |
| 17 Mar. 1989 |
MIL
3 - 1
QUI
64%
19%
18%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
At. Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 1989 |
NAC
1 - 0
MIL
51%
23%
26%
|
74 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1989 |
RAC
2 - 1
NAC
67%
18%
15%
|
74 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1989 |
NAC
2 - 0
RAC
49%
24%
27%
|
73 | 78 | 5 | +1 |
| 28 Mar. 1989 |
NAC
3 - 1
EME
52%
25%
22%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 1989 |
NAC
2 - 1
QUI
51%
22%
27%
|
72 | 74 | 2 | +1 |