Copa Libertadores Last 16
Global 3-1
Millonarios vs Alianza Lima analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
73.3%
Win probability
2.26
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.3%
4-0
5.8%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.8%
3-0
10.2%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.8%
2-0
13.6%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.9%
1-0
12%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
17.1%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
17.1%
9.5%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
2.7%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.1%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+17%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Millonarios
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr. 1995 |
ALI
1 - 1
MIL
35%
27%
38%
|
78 | 67 | 11 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1995 |
UCH
3 - 2
MIL
45%
24%
30%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 1995 |
UCO
4 - 1
MIL
55%
23%
22%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | -1 |
| 15 Mar. 1995 |
MIL
2 - 0
NAC
59%
21%
20%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | +1 |
| 07 Mar. 1995 |
MIL
1 - 0
UCH
69%
17%
14%
|
78 | 74 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Alianza Lima
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr. 1995 |
ALI
1 - 1
MIL
35%
27%
38%
|
67 | 78 | 11 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 1995 |
ALI
1 - 1
BOL
45%
27%
29%
|
67 | 77 | 10 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 1995 |
ALI
6 - 1
JWI
49%
25%
26%
|
66 | 68 | 2 | +1 |
| 08 Mar. 1995 |
ALI
1 - 1
SPC
46%
26%
28%
|
66 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 1995 |
BOL
3 - 1
ALI
72%
18%
10%
|
67 | 77 | 10 | -1 |