Europa League Last 16
Global 4-2
Milan vs Spartak Moskva analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.4%
Win probability
2.37
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.4%
4-0
5.1%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.6%
3-0
8.6%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.1%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.7%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.7%
17.3%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
17.3%
12.3%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
3.6%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.5%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.9%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Nov. 1975 |
ACM
0 - 1
JUV
40%
27%
33%
|
86 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 1975 |
ROM
0 - 0
ACM
35%
28%
37%
|
86 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 1975 |
ACM
3 - 0
ATH
81%
14%
6%
|
86 | 56 | 30 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 1975 |
ACM
4 - 0
ASC
75%
17%
7%
|
86 | 70 | 16 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 1975 |
ATH
0 - 0
ACM
22%
25%
54%
|
86 | 55 | 31 | 0 |
Matches
Spartak Moskva
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov. 1975 |
KOL
0 - 1
SPA
81%
12%
8%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 1975 |
SPA
2 - 0
KOL
33%
23%
44%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | +1 |
| 01 Oct. 1975 |
SPA
1 - 0
AIK
61%
21%
18%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 1975 |
AIK
1 - 1
SPA
50%
24%
26%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 1974 |
VEL
2 - 0
SPA
28%
22%
50%
|
79 | 65 | 14 | 0 |