Europa League Quarter-finals
Global 1-3
Milan vs Roma analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.7%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.8%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.6%
19.4%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.8%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.9%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr. 2024 |
ACM
3 - 0
LEC
78%
15%
6%
|
94 | 82 | 12 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2024 |
FIO
1 - 2
ACM
31%
25%
45%
|
94 | 89 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
VER
1 - 3
ACM
16%
22%
62%
|
93 | 81 | 12 | +1 |
| 14 Mar. 2024 |
SLP
1 - 3
ACM
19%
22%
59%
|
93 | 84 | 9 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
ACM
1 - 0
EMP
77%
16%
8%
|
93 | 82 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Roma
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr. 2024 |
ROM
1 - 0
LAZ
50%
24%
27%
|
92 | 91 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2024 |
LEC
0 - 0
ROM
23%
24%
53%
|
92 | 82 | 10 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
ROM
1 - 0
SAS
68%
19%
13%
|
91 | 84 | 7 | +1 |
| 14 Mar. 2024 |
BHA
1 - 0
ROM
48%
25%
28%
|
91 | 92 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
FIO
2 - 2
ROM
41%
25%
34%
|
91 | 89 | 2 | 0 |