Champions League Semi-finals
Global 3-3
Milan vs PSV analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.1%
Win probability
1.93
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.7%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.6%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.8%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
21.6%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.6%
17.3%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.6%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
+10%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr. 2005 |
ACM
3 - 0
PAR
73%
17%
10%
|
93 | 84 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2005 |
ACM
1 - 0
CHI
80%
14%
6%
|
93 | 80 | 13 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2005 |
SIE
2 - 1
ACM
14%
27%
59%
|
94 | 76 | 18 | -1 |
| 12 Apr. 2005 |
INT
0 - 3
ACM
47%
27%
26%
|
93 | 91 | 2 | +1 |
| 09 Apr. 2005 |
ACM
1 - 1
BRE
79%
14%
7%
|
93 | 79 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
PSV
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr. 2005 |
PSV
3 - 0
VIT
74%
17%
9%
|
88 | 74 | 14 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2005 |
FEY
3 - 5
PSV
52%
23%
25%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2005 |
WIL
0 - 1
PSV
21%
23%
56%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2005 |
PSV
1 - 1
LYO
43%
26%
31%
|
88 | 91 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2005 |
PSV
3 - 0
BOS
77%
15%
8%
|
88 | 63 | 25 | 0 |