Coppa Italia Semi-finals
Global 3-4
Milan vs Palermo FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.5%
Win probability
2.04
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.2%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.7%
3-0
8%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12%
2-0
11.8%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
20.2%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.2%
14.3%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
4%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr. 2011 |
ACM
3 - 0
SAM
74%
17%
9%
|
90 | 81 | 9 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2011 |
FIO
1 - 2
ACM
33%
27%
40%
|
90 | 84 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2011 |
ACM
3 - 0
INT
39%
26%
35%
|
89 | 92 | 3 | +1 |
| 19 Mar. 2011 |
PAL
1 - 0
ACM
33%
26%
41%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2011 |
ACM
1 - 1
BAR
78%
15%
7%
|
90 | 74 | 16 | -1 |
Matches
Palermo FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr. 2011 |
ROM
2 - 3
PAL
66%
20%
15%
|
83 | 87 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2011 |
PAL
2 - 2
CES
73%
18%
9%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2011 |
CAT
4 - 0
PAL
34%
26%
40%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 2011 |
PAL
1 - 0
ACM
33%
26%
41%
|
83 | 89 | 6 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2011 |
GEN
1 - 0
PAL
49%
24%
28%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |