Milan vs Novara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
78.8%
Win probability
2.38
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
3.5%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.3%
4-0
7.3%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.3%
3-0
12.3%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
16.6%
2-0
15.5%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
23%
1-0
13%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
23%
14.8%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
6.9%
2-2
2.2%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
14.8%
6.4%
Win probability
0.53
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
1.8%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0%
-1
5.1%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+27%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 May. 2012 |
INT
4 - 2
ACM
45%
25%
30%
|
90 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2012 |
ACM
2 - 0
ATL
75%
17%
9%
|
90 | 80 | 10 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2012 |
SIE
1 - 4
ACM
21%
26%
54%
|
90 | 81 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2012 |
ACM
1 - 0
GEN
74%
17%
9%
|
90 | 80 | 10 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2012 |
ACM
1 - 1
BOL
77%
16%
7%
|
90 | 79 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 May. 2012 |
NOV
3 - 0
CES
55%
25%
20%
|
72 | 71 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2012 |
FIO
2 - 2
NOV
68%
21%
12%
|
72 | 83 | 11 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2012 |
NOV
0 - 4
JUV
17%
26%
57%
|
72 | 90 | 18 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2012 |
NOV
2 - 1
LAZ
24%
25%
51%
|
72 | 85 | 13 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2012 |
NAP
2 - 0
NOV
76%
16%
8%
|
72 | 87 | 15 | 0 |