Milan vs Novara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
80.3%
Win probability
2.42
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.8%
5-0
3.8%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.6%
4-0
7.8%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.8%
3-0
12.9%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
17.2%
2-0
16%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
23.3%
1-0
13.2%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.1%
+1
22.7%
14.1%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
6.4%
2-2
1.9%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
14.1%
5.7%
Win probability
0.49
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
1.6%
2-3
0.3%
3-4
0%
-1
4.6%
0-2
0.6%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0%
-2
0.9%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan. 2012 |
ACM
0 - 1
INT
49%
25%
26%
|
90 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2012 |
ATL
0 - 2
ACM
20%
25%
55%
|
90 | 79 | 11 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2012 |
ACM
1 - 0
PSG
61%
22%
17%
|
90 | 87 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Dec. 2011 |
CAG
0 - 2
ACM
20%
25%
55%
|
90 | 79 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 2011 |
ACM
2 - 0
SIE
79%
14%
7%
|
89 | 78 | 11 | +1 |
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan. 2012 |
CES
3 - 1
NOV
46%
28%
26%
|
72 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2012 |
NOV
0 - 3
FIO
34%
27%
39%
|
73 | 84 | 11 | -1 |
| 21 Dec. 2011 |
NOV
2 - 2
PAL
29%
27%
45%
|
73 | 83 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Dec. 2011 |
JUV
2 - 0
NOV
79%
15%
7%
|
73 | 87 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 Dec. 2011 |
NOV
1 - 1
NAP
24%
25%
51%
|
73 | 87 | 14 | 0 |