Milan vs Novara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.4%
Win probability
2.38
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.7%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.7%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.2%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.1%
18.3%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
18.3%
16.3%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.4%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb. 1940 |
LAZ
2 - 2
ACM
56%
23%
21%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 1940 |
BAR
2 - 0
ACM
36%
25%
38%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | -1 |
| 04 Feb. 1940 |
ACM
2 - 2
GEN
50%
24%
27%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 1940 |
FIO
1 - 0
ACM
42%
25%
33%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 1940 |
ACM
1 - 3
TOR
58%
23%
19%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb. 1940 |
NOV
3 - 1
GEN
26%
23%
51%
|
72 | 83 | 11 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 1940 |
FIO
2 - 2
NOV
53%
22%
25%
|
72 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 1940 |
NOV
0 - 1
TOR
38%
25%
37%
|
72 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 1940 |
MOD
4 - 1
NOV
47%
23%
30%
|
73 | 66 | 7 | -1 |
| 21 Jan. 1940 |
NOV
2 - 1
TRI
50%
23%
27%
|
73 | 76 | 3 | 0 |