Milan vs Novara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.6%
Win probability
2.21
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.1%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.2%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.4%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.1%
19.3%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
5%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.3%
16.1%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
10.6%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 1939 |
TRI
0 - 1
ACM
44%
26%
30%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1939 |
VNZ
1 - 2
ACM
63%
20%
18%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | +1 |
| 21 Apr. 1939 |
ACM
0 - 0
JUV
48%
25%
28%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1939 |
ACL
0 - 1
ACM
53%
22%
25%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1939 |
TOR
3 - 2
ACM
66%
19%
15%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 1939 |
ASL
0 - 1
NOV
48%
23%
30%
|
71 | 66 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1939 |
NOV
3 - 0
MOD
56%
21%
24%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | +1 |
| 21 Apr. 1939 |
NOV
1 - 0
TRI
48%
23%
29%
|
69 | 77 | 8 | +1 |
| 16 Apr. 1939 |
JUV
1 - 0
NOV
74%
15%
10%
|
70 | 83 | 13 | -1 |
| 09 Apr. 1939 |
NOV
1 - 0
ACL
41%
22%
37%
|
69 | 77 | 8 | +1 |