Milan vs Modena analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
78.1%
Win probability
2.77
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.9%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.4%
5-0
3.8%
6-1
1.4%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.4%
4-0
6.8%
5-1
3.1%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
10.5%
3-0
9.8%
4-1
5.5%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.8%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.3%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.3%
13.6%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
6.3%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
13.6%
8.3%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
2.6%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
6%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.8%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar. 1949 |
NOV
1 - 2
ACM
23%
24%
54%
|
84 | 70 | 14 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 1949 |
ACM
3 - 1
FIO
75%
15%
11%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 1949 |
TOR
4 - 1
ACM
82%
11%
8%
|
84 | 91 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 1949 |
ACM
4 - 0
ASL
73%
15%
12%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 13 Feb. 1949 |
TRI
1 - 3
ACM
33%
26%
41%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Modena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar. 1949 |
MOD
2 - 2
JUV
32%
26%
42%
|
77 | 85 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 1949 |
MOD
2 - 3
INT
31%
25%
44%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 1949 |
ROM
2 - 1
MOD
55%
23%
22%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 1949 |
MOD
0 - 1
BOL
43%
26%
31%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | -1 |
| 13 Feb. 1949 |
SAM
1 - 1
MOD
66%
19%
15%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |