Milan vs Lucchese Libertas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75.5%
Win probability
2.77
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.2%
5-0
3.3%
6-1
1.4%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.1%
4-0
6%
5-1
3.1%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9.9%
3-0
8.7%
4-1
5.6%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
16%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.7%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.4%
14.4%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
6.4%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
14.4%
10.1%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
3%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
6.9%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
2.4%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
-24%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar. 1938 |
ROM
3 - 1
ACM
58%
23%
19%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 1938 |
ACM
0 - 0
TRI
60%
22%
19%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 1938 |
ATL
0 - 0
ACM
41%
23%
35%
|
80 | 69 | 11 | -1 |
| 27 Feb. 1938 |
ACM
1 - 0
LIV
68%
18%
14%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | +1 |
| 20 Feb. 1938 |
ACM
1 - 0
INT
47%
24%
29%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Lucchese Libertas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar. 1938 |
ASL
0 - 0
ACL
46%
22%
32%
|
66 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 1938 |
FIO
0 - 0
ASL
61%
20%
19%
|
66 | 72 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 1938 |
ASL
3 - 3
BOL
32%
25%
43%
|
66 | 84 | 18 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 1938 |
ASL
3 - 2
ATL
50%
22%
28%
|
65 | 69 | 4 | +1 |
| 20 Feb. 1938 |
JUV
1 - 0
ASL
87%
9%
5%
|
66 | 86 | 20 | -1 |