Europa League Quarter-finals
Global 3-1
Milan vs Lierse SK analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75.7%
Win probability
2.47
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.7%
5-0
3.2%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.2%
4-0
6.4%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
9%
3-0
10.3%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.8%
2-0
12.5%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.8%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.3%
15.4%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.4%
8.9%
Win probability
0.72
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
2.6%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
6.5%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.9%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Feb. 1972 |
JUV
1 - 1
ACM
58%
23%
19%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 Feb. 1972 |
ACM
1 - 1
VIC
76%
17%
7%
|
88 | 74 | 14 | 0 |
| 06 Feb. 1972 |
FIO
2 - 0
ACM
37%
29%
35%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 1972 |
ACM
3 - 1
VAR
79%
16%
6%
|
88 | 70 | 18 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 1972 |
FCC
0 - 0
ACM
14%
27%
60%
|
88 | 65 | 23 | 0 |
Matches
Lierse SK
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Feb. 1972 |
STR
3 - 2
LIE
39%
27%
34%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 Feb. 1972 |
LIE
1 - 0
MOL
59%
22%
19%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | +1 |
| 06 Feb. 1972 |
CER
1 - 2
LIE
34%
29%
37%
|
77 | 66 | 11 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 1972 |
LIE
2 - 1
KVM
71%
18%
11%
|
77 | 69 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 1972 |
LIE
3 - 2
KSV
70%
19%
12%
|
77 | 69 | 8 | 0 |