Europa League 1/16
Global 4-1
Milan vs Levski Sofia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.1%
Win probability
1.95
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
5.4%
3-0
8.5%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.9%
2-0
13%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.4%
1-0
13.4%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.5%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
20.7%
13.2%
Win probability
0.73
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
3.6%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
9.5%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.9%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct. 1978 |
ACM
4 - 1
FIO
61%
23%
16%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 1978 |
ATL
1 - 3
ACM
25%
28%
47%
|
84 | 68 | 16 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 1978 |
LSO
1 - 1
ACM
56%
22%
23%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 1978 |
ACM
0 - 0
ASC
71%
18%
11%
|
84 | 70 | 14 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 1978 |
ROM
0 - 3
ACM
35%
28%
38%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Levski Sofia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct. 1978 |
LSO
1 - 1
LSO
52%
25%
24%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 1978 |
LSO
2 - 0
MAR
74%
16%
10%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 1978 |
LSO
1 - 1
ACM
56%
22%
23%
|
78 | 84 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 1978 |
LPL
0 - 1
LSO
46%
26%
28%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 1978 |
LSO
5 - 0
BER
75%
15%
10%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |