Milan vs Lazio analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.4%
Win probability
2.19
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.3%
4-0
3.5%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.6%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.4%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.4%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.7%
19.9%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.9%
18.7%
Win probability
1.13
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
11.7%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.9%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May. 1941 |
CAS
1 - 5
ACM
38%
25%
37%
|
80 | 62 | 18 | 0 |
| 04 May. 1941 |
ACM
1 - 1
GEN
54%
22%
25%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1941 |
JUV
1 - 2
ACM
63%
20%
17%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 1941 |
ACM
3 - 0
LAZ
60%
21%
19%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 1941 |
FIO
2 - 3
ACM
53%
23%
24%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
Lazio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May. 1941 |
TRI
1 - 2
LAZ
48%
24%
28%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 May. 1941 |
BOL
2 - 2
LAZ
71%
17%
12%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1941 |
LAZ
4 - 1
FIO
57%
22%
22%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | +1 |
| 20 Apr. 1941 |
ACM
3 - 0
LAZ
60%
21%
19%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | -1 |
| 13 Apr. 1941 |
LAZ
2 - 2
BAR
64%
18%
17%
|
78 | 67 | 11 | 0 |