Milan vs Fiorentina analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64%
Win probability
2.24
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
3.9%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.1%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.1%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.1%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.8%
19.2%
Draw
0-0
3.7%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.2%
16.8%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
10.8%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
-1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep. 1939 |
TOR
2 - 1
ACM
66%
19%
15%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 May. 1939 |
MOD
2 - 2
ACM
44%
24%
32%
|
79 | 70 | 9 | 0 |
| 21 May. 1939 |
ACM
1 - 0
ASL
75%
15%
10%
|
79 | 66 | 13 | 0 |
| 09 May. 1939 |
ACM
2 - 3
NOV
65%
19%
16%
|
80 | 72 | 8 | -1 |
| 30 Apr. 1939 |
TRI
0 - 1
ACM
44%
26%
30%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Fiorentina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep. 1939 |
FIO
1 - 1
GEN
39%
25%
36%
|
71 | 81 | 10 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1938 |
GEN
5 - 2
FIO
70%
17%
13%
|
73 | 80 | 7 | -2 |
| 11 Sep. 1938 |
FIO
4 - 0
VER
41%
24%
36%
|
71 | 77 | 6 | +2 |
| 24 Apr. 1938 |
FIO
4 - 0
ATL
51%
23%
26%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | +1 |
| 17 Apr. 1938 |
LAZ
5 - 0
FIO
67%
18%
14%
|
71 | 79 | 8 | -1 |