Qualif. Champions Semi-finals
Global 1-0
Milan vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
76.1%
Win probability
2.11
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.1%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.7%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
3.1%
4-0
6.3%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
7.7%
3-0
12%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
15.2%
2-0
17%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
<0%
+2
23.2%
1-0
16.1%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.1%
+1
25.3%
17.1%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
7.4%
2-2
1.8%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
17.1%
6.8%
Win probability
0.46
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
1.7%
2-3
0.3%
3-4
0%
-1
5.5%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0%
-2
1.1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep. 1993 |
USC
0 - 2
ACM
15%
24%
61%
|
94 | 79 | 15 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 1993 |
ACM
2 - 0
ROM
65%
22%
14%
|
94 | 88 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 1993 |
FCA
0 - 1
ACM
17%
26%
58%
|
93 | 74 | 19 | +1 |
| 12 Sep. 1993 |
ACM
2 - 0
ATL
72%
19%
9%
|
93 | 83 | 10 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 1993 |
PIA
0 - 0
ACM
13%
23%
65%
|
93 | 72 | 21 | 0 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep. 1993 |
FCL
5 - 2
FCA
51%
28%
22%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 1993 |
LAU
2 - 0
FCA
52%
26%
22%
|
74 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 1993 |
FCA
0 - 1
ACM
17%
26%
58%
|
74 | 93 | 19 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 1993 |
FCA
0 - 2
LUG
51%
26%
23%
|
75 | 74 | 1 | -1 |
| 01 Sep. 1993 |
FCA
2 - 0
OMO
63%
21%
16%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | +1 |