Middlesbrough vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.4%
Win probability
2.18
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.1%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.1%
3-0
5.6%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.6%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
7%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.5%
1-0
7%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.2%
20.3%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
20.3%
21.3%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.8%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.8%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Middlesbrough
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep. 1931 |
BOL
4 - 2
MID
47%
22%
31%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 1931 |
LIV
7 - 2
MID
51%
22%
27%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | -1 |
| 12 Sep. 1931 |
MID
4 - 0
SHW
49%
22%
29%
|
81 | 86 | 5 | +1 |
| 09 Sep. 1931 |
MID
4 - 1
LIV
59%
20%
21%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | +1 |
| 05 Sep. 1931 |
WHU
0 - 2
MID
54%
20%
26%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep. 1931 |
EVE
2 - 1
DER
56%
20%
24%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 1931 |
DER
2 - 1
OPA
66%
18%
16%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 1931 |
DER
3 - 0
EVE
63%
18%
18%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | +1 |
| 12 Sep. 1931 |
BBU
3 - 2
DER
58%
20%
22%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | -1 |
| 09 Sep. 1931 |
MAC
3 - 0
DER
60%
20%
21%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |