Middlesbrough vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.3%
Win probability
2.2
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.2%
3-0
7.5%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.4%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.6%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.3%
19.3%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
9%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
19.3%
15.4%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
10.3%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.8%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Middlesbrough
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb. 1920 |
DER
1 - 2
MID
52%
23%
25%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 1920 |
MAC
1 - 0
MID
60%
21%
20%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 1920 |
PNE
3 - 1
MID
48%
24%
28%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Jan. 1920 |
MID
4 - 1
PNE
67%
19%
14%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1920 |
MID
4 - 0
BUR
56%
23%
21%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Feb. 1920 |
SHE
0 - 0
DER
65%
20%
16%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 1920 |
DER
1 - 2
MID
52%
23%
25%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 1920 |
DER
5 - 1
SHE
51%
25%
24%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | +1 |
| 17 Jan. 1920 |
SUN
2 - 1
DER
72%
16%
12%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | -1 |
| 03 Jan. 1920 |
DER
3 - 1
SUN
33%
24%
43%
|
76 | 85 | 9 | +1 |