Metz vs Bastia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.2%
3-0
5.6%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.2%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.6%
1-0
12.2%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.4%
21.6%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.2%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.4%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+6%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
8
2º
10º
2º
8
2º
8º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
3º
|
9 | 67 |
1º
|
41.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
8 | 63 |
2º
|
23.5% | |
|
2º
|
9 | 56 |
3º
|
11.5% | |
|
1º
|
9 | 55 |
4º
|
12.5% | |
|
13º
|
4 | 53 |
5º
|
10.5% | |
|
4º
|
8 | 52 |
6º
|
8% | |
|
|
6º
|
8 | 49 |
7º
|
6% | |
|
7º
|
7 | 48 |
8º
|
6% | |
|
12º
|
6 | 47 |
9º
|
6.5% | |
|
16º
|
1 | 44 |
10º
|
5.5% | |
|
10º
|
6 | 44 |
11º
|
7% | |
|
11º
|
6 | 40 |
12º
|
11% | |
|
8º
|
7 | 39 |
13º
|
11.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 38 |
14º
|
6.5% | |
|
14º
|
3 | 38 |
15º
|
10.5% | |
|
15º
|
2 | 36 |
16º
|
12.5% | |
|
9º
|
7 | 36 |
17º
|
11% | |
|
17º
|
1 | 36 |
18º
|
20% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
46.5% | 7% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
34.5% | 23% |
|
Mid-table
|
19% | 62% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 4.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 3.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Metz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
AMI
1 - 1
MET
25%
25%
51%
|
76 | 68 | 8 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
MET
0 - 3
TOR
26%
27%
47%
|
76 | 89 | 13 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2024 |
MET
0 - 0
UNF
80%
14%
7%
|
76 | 13 | 63 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
WEH
0 - 2
MET
37%
25%
38%
|
76 | 71 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2024 |
MET
5 - 1
FBO
65%
20%
15%
|
76 | 60 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Bastia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
AJA
1 - 2
BAS
28%
25%
47%
|
69 | 65 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2024 |
BAS
3 - 1
ANN
40%
25%
35%
|
69 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
BAS
1 - 2
ROD
38%
25%
37%
|
69 | 71 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2024 |
BAS
1 - 2
BAL
72%
18%
11%
|
69 | 41 | 28 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
BAS
3 - 0
LUC
81%
14%
5%
|
69 | 35 | 34 | 0 |