Coppa Italia Last 16
Global 2-3
ACR Messina vs Parma analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
19.8%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.1%
2-0
3.2%
3-1
1.2%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.6%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
4.7%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
13.9%
26.7%
Draw
0-0
10.8%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
26.7%
53.5%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
0-1
15.7%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
-1
26.3%
0-2
11.5%
1-3
4.3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0%
-2
16.4%
0-3
5.6%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
7.3%
0-4
2%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0%
-4
2.5%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
ACR Messina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov. 2001 |
MES
3 - 1
COS
45%
28%
27%
|
64 | 64 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2001 |
COM
2 - 1
MES
50%
28%
22%
|
65 | 70 | 5 | -1 |
| 24 Oct. 2001 |
LEC
1 - 3
MES
72%
18%
10%
|
63 | 78 | 15 | +2 |
| 14 Oct. 2001 |
MES
2 - 0
PAL
45%
28%
28%
|
63 | 62 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2001 |
SAL
1 - 2
MES
54%
25%
20%
|
62 | 65 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Parma
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov. 2001 |
PAR
2 - 1
PRG
64%
21%
15%
|
88 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 2001 |
PAR
0 - 0
UTR
72%
18%
10%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2001 |
PAR
2 - 2
VER
68%
19%
13%
|
88 | 78 | 10 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 2001 |
CHI
1 - 0
PAR
29%
27%
44%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2001 |
UTR
1 - 3
PAR
33%
27%
40%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | 0 |