ACR Messina vs Pavia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.2%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.4%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.7%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.4%
1-0
12.9%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.2%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.1%
19.7%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.3%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
ACR Messina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr. 1954 |
VIC
2 - 0
MES
61%
22%
17%
|
64 | 61 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 1954 |
TRE
0 - 0
MES
51%
26%
23%
|
64 | 58 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1954 |
CAT
1 - 3
MES
68%
20%
13%
|
63 | 72 | 9 | +1 |
| 28 Mar. 1954 |
MES
1 - 0
SAL
52%
26%
23%
|
62 | 60 | 2 | +1 |
| 21 Mar. 1954 |
BRE
1 - 0
MES
57%
25%
19%
|
63 | 64 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Pavia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr. 1954 |
PAV
2 - 1
PAD
53%
23%
24%
|
51 | 59 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 1954 |
BRE
2 - 0
PAV
60%
23%
17%
|
52 | 63 | 11 | -1 |
| 04 Apr. 1954 |
PAV
0 - 1
ACM
54%
23%
23%
|
52 | 62 | 10 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 1954 |
ASS
1 - 0
PAV
62%
21%
17%
|
53 | 62 | 9 | -1 |
| 21 Mar. 1954 |
PAV
1 - 1
VER
51%
23%
26%
|
52 | 63 | 11 | +1 |