Melbourne Victory vs Sydney FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
37.2%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.3%
3-0
2.8%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.2%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.8%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.5%
26.3%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.3%
36.5%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
0-1
9.5%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
20.3%
0-2
6.2%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.5%
0-3
2.7%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
25
1º
7º
4º
25
2º
8º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
31 | 51 |
1º
|
82% | |
|
|
4º
|
25 | 42 |
2º
|
12.5% | |
|
7º
|
24 | 42 |
3º
|
13.5% | |
|
|
6º
|
25 | 42 |
4º
|
14.5% | |
|
1º
|
33 | 41 |
5º
|
15.5% | |
|
3º
|
26 | 40 |
6º
|
16.5% | |
|
9º
|
21 | 38 |
7º
|
12.5% | |
|
5º
|
25 | 37 |
8º
|
13% | |
|
8º
|
22 | 37 |
9º
|
17% | |
|
10º
|
19 | 34 |
10º
|
31% | |
|
11º
|
15 | 27 |
11º
|
64% | |
|
12º
|
10 | 18 |
12º
|
48% | |
|
13º
|
6 | 17 |
13º
|
49% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
19% | 15.5% |
|
Next round
|
55.5% | 56% |
|
Mid-table
|
25.5% | 28.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Melbourne Victory
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
ADE
3 - 2
MEL
47%
25%
29%
|
74 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 2025 |
MEL
3 - 4
WUF
58%
23%
20%
|
74 | 65 | 9 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2025 |
MEL
2 - 2
WES
45%
25%
30%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 2025 |
AFC
0 - 0
MEL
18%
24%
58%
|
74 | 20 | 54 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 2024 |
SYD
3 - 0
MEL
46%
25%
29%
|
75 | 74 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Sydney FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
SYD
3 - 4
BRI
75%
16%
9%
|
77 | 61 | 16 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2025 |
WPH
0 - 0
SYD
32%
26%
42%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
SYD
4 - 1
CCM
48%
24%
28%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | +1 |
| 08 Jan. 2025 |
SYD
3 - 0
PER
75%
16%
9%
|
75 | 57 | 18 | +1 |
| 04 Jan. 2025 |
NEW
2 - 2
SYD
26%
25%
49%
|
75 | 64 | 11 | 0 |