Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.2%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.5%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.6%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.6%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.3%
22.5%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.2%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
24
1º
6º
1º
18
1º
9º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
24 | 48 |
1º
|
31% | |
|
4º
|
18 | 46 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
2º
|
24 | 46 |
3º
|
18% | |
|
3º
|
21 | 45 |
4º
|
13% | |
|
6º
|
18 | 43 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
5º
|
18 | 39 |
6º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
15 | 37 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
18 | 36 |
8º
|
20% | |
|
8º
|
17 | 36 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
10º
|
13 | 29 |
10º
|
32% | |
|
11º
|
8 | 23 |
11º
|
33.5% | |
|
12º
|
7 | 22 |
12º
|
46.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC Champions League Elite
|
31% | 1% |
|
Next round
|
63.5% | 33% |
|
Mid-table
|
5.5% | 66% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Melbourne Victory
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Feb. 2024 |
NEW
1 - 1
MEL
27%
25%
48%
|
70 | 60 | 10 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2024 |
MEL
1 - 1
SYD
49%
25%
26%
|
71 | 69 | 2 | -1 |
| 19 Jan. 2024 |
WPH
1 - 1
MEL
41%
25%
33%
|
71 | 67 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
CCM
1 - 1
MEL
58%
21%
20%
|
71 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
PER
2 - 3
MEL
26%
25%
49%
|
71 | 60 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Macarthur FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Feb. 2024 |
MFC
4 - 3
WES
37%
25%
38%
|
65 | 69 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2024 |
MFC
2 - 2
PER
56%
22%
21%
|
65 | 59 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2024 |
BRI
1 - 3
MFC
43%
26%
32%
|
64 | 66 | 2 | +1 |
| 12 Jan. 2024 |
MFC
3 - 3
WUF
53%
24%
24%
|
65 | 61 | 4 | -1 |
| 08 Jan. 2024 |
ADE
1 - 1
MFC
52%
24%
25%
|
65 | 68 | 3 | 0 |