Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.2%
Win probability
1.82
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.9%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.4%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.6%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
22.8%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.8%
19.9%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
6%
1-2
5.3%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.1%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-24%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
24
1º
6º
1º
17
2º
10º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
24 | 48 |
1º
|
31% | |
|
4º
|
18 | 46 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
2º
|
24 | 46 |
3º
|
18% | |
|
3º
|
21 | 45 |
4º
|
13% | |
|
6º
|
18 | 43 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
5º
|
18 | 39 |
6º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
15 | 37 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
7º
|
18 | 36 |
8º
|
20% | |
|
|
8º
|
17 | 36 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
10º
|
13 | 29 |
10º
|
32% | |
|
11º
|
8 | 23 |
11º
|
33.5% | |
|
12º
|
7 | 22 |
12º
|
46.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC Champions League Elite
|
31% | 1% |
|
Next round
|
63.5% | 27.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
5.5% | 71.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Melbourne Victory
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr. 2024 |
WPH
1 - 0
MEL
43%
25%
32%
|
73 | 71 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2024 |
MEL
2 - 1
MCI
41%
25%
34%
|
72 | 73 | 1 | +1 |
| 31 Mar. 2024 |
MEL
2 - 1
PER
61%
22%
17%
|
72 | 63 | 9 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 2024 |
WUF
2 - 2
MEL
30%
26%
44%
|
71 | 64 | 7 | +1 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
ADE
1 - 2
MEL
39%
26%
35%
|
71 | 67 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Brisbane Roar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr. 2024 |
BRI
0 - 2
NEW
48%
25%
27%
|
66 | 63 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2024 |
WES
1 - 2
BRI
53%
24%
23%
|
65 | 70 | 5 | +1 |
| 31 Mar. 2024 |
WPH
1 - 0
BRI
56%
23%
21%
|
66 | 71 | 5 | -1 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
BRI
1 - 2
MFC
39%
26%
35%
|
66 | 68 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
SYD
1 - 1
BRI
58%
23%
20%
|
66 | 73 | 7 | 0 |